The Syrian Civil War Heading into 2016

  • Published
  • By Senior Airman Sean D. Smith
  • Minot Air Force Base Public Affairs
MINOT AIR FORCE BASE, N.D. --  The Islamic State dominates the headlines, but rarely without the words Assad and Syria creeping into the story somehow. As far as American audiences are concerned, tensions in Syria might have peaked two or three years ago -- but the Syrian Civil War is still ongoing, and any discussion of the Islamic State inevitably relates to the continuing struggle for Syria.

The unrest that would ultimately lead to the conflict was a product of the Arab Spring movement, a widespread expression of dissatisfaction with government and leadership in the Arab world that gained prominence in 2011.

In Syria, that dissatisfaction was directed at the government of Bashar al-Assad, who has been accused of serious war crimes and human rights violations. However, the Syrian Civil War is too complex to be quickly or cleanly summarized because of the number of forces involved.

Assad and his government are supported by groups like the Houthis, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and also nations such as Iran and Russia. At the end of 2015, the Syrian government controlled approximately 30 percent of Syria. Assad's goal is presumably to stay in power.

Numerous rebel groups compose the Syrian Opposition, which is tied to the Syrian National Coalition, and the goal for these groups is a regime change. The Syrian National Coalition is recognized and supported by the United States, and other nations who oppose Assad. Another contributor to the Syrian Opposition is al-Qaeda. Rebels hold approximately 20 percent of Syria.

The third major player in Syria is the Islamic State, which is sporadically at odds with both the Syrian Opposition and the Syrian government in its efforts to consolidate its control and establish its caliphate. IS controls approximately 40 percent of Syria. The rest of the country is under the control of the Kurds.

Because of the presence of IS in Syria, there's one more influence in the region -- the Combined Joint Task Force, Operation Inherent Resolve, which is the United States-led coalition whose goal is to resist the Islamic State. The task force is headquartered in Kuwait, and dozens of nations are contributors.

The sheer variety of forces involved has made for a uniquely layered situation in a conflict that began as a civil war, but has escalated to a sort of proxy war, and even a kind of world war, given the number of countries involved. The convoluted tangle of allegiances and agendas has made for some interesting dynamics, particularly between the United States and Russia, who are cooperating against IS, but divided over Assad's regime.

Peace talks have been underway since Oct., 2015 to bring about a diplomatic end to the fight, but the Syrian Civil War is still ongoing, as are the humanitarian crises it has created.